Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.049565 0.056296 0.063815 0.072876 0.083553 0.095794 0.110982
2026-01-04 0.041552 0.050443 0.061227 0.075416 0.093812 0.117163 0.149543
2026-01-11 0.035013 0.044988 0.057975 0.076453 0.102614 0.139191 0.195804
2026-01-18 0.029811 0.040295 0.054850 0.077118 0.111412 0.164161 0.255557
2026-01-25 0.025082 0.035431 0.050637 0.075479 0.116840 0.186544 0.321668
2026-02-01 0.020954 0.030750 0.045874 0.072071 0.118917 0.204964 0.391151
2026-02-08 0.018434 0.028099 0.043780 0.072628 0.128237 0.240360 0.514984
2026-02-15 0.016362 0.025827 0.041912 0.073238 0.138203 0.282023 0.683071
2026-02-22 0.014779 0.024119 0.040715 0.074901 0.151199 0.337316 0.934849
2026-03-01 0.013388 0.022526 0.039446 0.076192 0.164226 0.400743 1.280560
2026-03-08 0.011923 0.020580 0.037176 0.074887 0.171025 0.452841 1.658060
2026-03-15 0.010321 0.018155 0.033569 0.069815 0.166745 0.471154 1.931646
2026-03-22 0.009433 0.017007 0.032429 0.070388 0.178715 0.553229 2.678983
2026-03-29 0.008776 0.016227 0.031936 0.072489 0.196513 0.673113 3.965459
2026-04-05 0.008096 0.015303 0.030976 0.073202 0.210798 0.795288 5.720126
2026-04-12 0.007478 0.014426 0.029978 0.073604 0.224724 0.933998 8.316777
2026-04-19 0.006813 0.013361 0.028364 0.071873 0.230505 1.041991 11.305326
2026-04-26 0.006144 0.012207 0.026361 0.068519 0.228798 1.110099 14.364648
2026-05-03 0.005741 0.011603 0.025630 0.068926 0.243141 1.302485 21.933021
2026-05-10 0.005383 0.011059 0.024965 0.069402 0.258525 1.533051 34.619441
2026-05-17 0.005102 0.010660 0.024618 0.070877 0.279982 1.859829 60.194674
2026-05-24 0.004833 0.010259 0.024199 0.072015 0.301046 2.240267 108.259578
2026-05-31 0.004504 0.009673 0.023183 0.070742 0.308901 2.516185 173.229870